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Posts
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Just now, LeMale said:
My 2 pennies worth is, it's very much swings and round-abouts and as a @Zilzalian Type 2.5 (kind of inbetween) i make a judgement call depending on the odds at the time i'm betting, which can be very beneficial (like in the race you mentioned - placed bet at 16-1 with 365 win bet not ew because price too low, got BOG as sp was 33-1) or can backfire badly, just like the race after that with Moutarde where i split the bet, half at 40-1 (and 2 mins after went to 50-1) and half at sp both ew with skybet. At the time i was gutted i took the 40's as price was rising, but like i said, it backfired because it went off at 12-1 i think and lost £16.80 on the sp bet. I will try to put them on here at the end as don't want anybody thinking i'm a "hindsight punter" as long as no one laughs at my stakes. (it's what keeps it fun and not really gambling in my eyes) It can be frustrating when that 16-1 shot drifts to a big price (a price that i would normally bet ew) and it places, so i get nothing, but when it wins like yesterday i make more, like i said, swings and round-abouts you have to take the rough with the smooth, that's racing.
Couldn't put both up, so here's the other one.
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15 hours ago, harry_rag said:
I'll stick this in here as it seems legitimate as a variable to be considered before placing a bet (and follows up on a recent discussion). The issue of how you decide whether to go for the best price or the extra places when betting each way.
Having had a look at the 7:50 in Naas (19 runners), Sky are going 6 places from 4 though most firms are offering 5 anyway. I've looked at a couple of runners:
- Captured 18/1 to 6 places v 25/1 to 5 places (5th the odds)
- Calamint 16/1 to 6 places v 18/1 to 5 places (5th the odds)
My gut reaction is that the drop in price for the first horse is a bit steep but the second one isn't that significant. I've quickly crunched some numbers that give the following ratings (in terms of the decision about whether to favour the extra places); Captured at 0.74 v Calamint at 1.89. That's based on the gain in places (positive) and the reduction in price (negative) and the bigger the number the better the extra place option is.
Out of interest, how do you racing punters feel about those two options. Would you tend towards the better price for the first one but the extra place for the second?
My 2 pennies worth is, it's very much swings and round-abouts and as a @Zilzalian Type 2.5 (kind of inbetween) i make a judgement call depending on the odds at the time i'm betting, which can be very beneficial (like in the race you mentioned - placed bet at 16-1 with 365 win bet not ew because price too low, got BOG as sp was 33-1) or can backfire badly, just like the race after that with Moutarde where i split the bet, half at 40-1 (and 2 mins after went to 50-1) and half at sp both ew with skybet. At the time i was gutted i took the 40's as price was rising, but like i said, it backfired because it went off at 12-1 i think and lost £16.80 on the sp bet. I will try to put them on here at the end as don't want anybody thinking i'm a "hindsight punter" as long as no one laughs at my stakes. (it's what keeps it fun and not really gambling in my eyes) It can be frustrating when that 16-1 shot drifts to a big price (a price that i would normally bet ew) and it places, so i get nothing, but when it wins like yesterday i make more, like i said, swings and round-abouts you have to take the rough with the smooth, that's racing.
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5.00 Yarmouth, Rajindri, 6/1 WH
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1 hour ago, Hotspur88 said:
1515 Yarmouth Cat Ninja 5/1
Info 👍🏼
Just so you have a bit more clarity on my horse posts, I'll always state if it's info as I have today. I've actually backed e/w as I got 5/1 but the info is usually always to back on the nose.
They only ever really suggest e/w of odds over 12s so today's is suggested on the nose but I'm trying to play slightly cautiously.
This is the 3rd info bet since returning. The 1st won around 9/2, the 2nd came 2nd at around 18/1 and that was suggested e/w and this is the 3rd so hopefully the solid info continues 👌🏼.
Good luck if you follow 🙂
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Monday result: Cock and Bull 2nd.
April Profit £137.50
Tuesday selection
£20 Intercessor @9/4 Betfred
Brighton 14.25
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