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Poor Day 2 and so annoying to see Tom Foolery win. He was really well backed and ended up going off favourite so clearly some people expected an improved showing. I'm not sure Duke Of Bedford was loving Warrnambool and he might prefer going elsewhere. Only the final day where the big race of the week, the Grand Annual takes place.
Race 1
The Champion Novice Hurdle looks the toughest race of the week to find the winner of. Affluential is the market leader after he got up to beat Dubai Moon at Pakenham and last week he won a maiden on the flat at Cranbourne. Dubai Moon ran well enough on Tuesday to give the form a solid enough look and they did pull clear of the others. As I wrote the other day though Dubai Moon's jockey thought he got distracted by the hurdle after the line so was he possibly a bit fortunate to win so whilst I respect his chance and he could win I am going to take him on.
Jekyll'n'hyde won a maiden at Coleraine last August and then ran a solid enough 4th at Ballarat in handicap company behind El Diez. He has had 3 flat runs over the last couple of months and he won a hurdle trial here 3 weeks ago. He has claims.
Calvi could run a decent race as he took the maiden on the first jumps card of the season over course and distance. Elementry was 4th that day and did reverse the form at Pakenham last month, but I think the fact he could dictate the pace in a small field played into his hands and Calvi's run wasn't bad. He ran OK on the flat at Moe last week.
Lincoln King won his maiden at Ballarat last time, but I'm not sure that is the strongest form in the race, but he does have strong flat form so I still respect his claims.
I was really impressed with Huntly Castle at Pakenham as he quickened up well to storm clear. Given Leaderboard who was 2nd that day won on Tuesday that form has a strong look to it and his jockey has impressed in Australia so far and landed the Galleywood yesterday.
I put up Custom Of The Sea at Pakenham and on the face of it he ran poorly, but he was lame after the race and the jockey reported that he made an abnormal respiratory noise turning for home. I think he looks a potential big improver from that effort and he had shown good promise in Ireland over hurdles so we know the ability to win a race like this is there.
I'm going to take two against the field here and with Huntly Castle's form boosted on Tuesday I am going to back him and I am expecting a much improved run from Custom Of The Sea so he is the other one I will back.
Huntly Castle 1pt @ 9/2 with Bet365
Custom Of The Sea 1pt @ 19/5 with Bet365
Race 7
Really looking forward to the Grand Annual which is the longest jumps race in Australia at 5500m and it is worth around £130k to the winner. Stern Idol was entered in this, but in a very clever move by his trainer I think he was only put into the race to keep the weights down for last years Rockstar Ronnie. He would have had to carry more than 67.5kg and it would have led to more horses being in the handicap proper, but instead he is giving less weight than he should do to some of the runners. I find it odd that in Australia they don't see to focus on the handicap and just look at the weight's the horses have to carry which is the opposite to what we do over here.
Rockstar Ronnie was a good winner last year and the ex Dan Skelton trained horse certainly won way more money than he would have done in the UK. After that he was beaten by Mighty Oasis in the Thackeray and then ran a stinker in the Crips at Sandown, but he was lame after the race and he jumped terribly so I suspect the lameness was the reason. I thought he ran the perfect trial at Pakenham when 3rd behind Stern Idol and after the race I went over to where connections were stood and they were delighted with the effort which should have put him spot on for this.
Bell Ex One was certainly the better horse of the 2 in Ireland/UK and he was 3rd at the Cheltenham Festival on his last start here. His first start in Oz went perfectly as he beat Stern Idol over hurdles and I thought he was going to win lots of races last season. That didn't really happen though and whilst he did well to win the Lafferty Hurdle I didn't think he was really at his best. To be fair his chase debut was a good effort in the Grand National at Ballarat when 2nd to Brungle Bertie, He's had lots of trials this year and a couple of flat runs and he was 2nd last time at Kyneton. I never really had him down as a horse who needs this far and I do think he has to step up on what he did last year.
Brungle Bertie ended the season very well as his run in the Crisp was good given he got badly hampered and then as mentioned above he won the Grand National. I thought he was given a bit of a daft ride at Pakenham as he tried to serve it up to Stern Idol which is never to work as he burnt himself out and ended up finishing 5th. He should come on for that run though and given he stayed 4500m well he ought to stay this trip.
Vanguard was 4th in this race last year and no doubt will have had this race as his plan again this year. He ran well in his prep at Ballarat when 3rd to Mighty Oasis and Instigator. With another year on his back he could easily improve on his 4th place.
Crosshill had good form in Ireland before going to Oz and he was certainly a better horse than Rockstar Ronnie, but things haven't quite worked out for him. He was 3rd in this last year and did win a maiden on the flat, but he was only 6th in the Crisp and then failed to finish in the Grand National. He won 1st up this season although it ended up being a very weak race with the other two chances both departing early on. I thought he was very poor at Ballarat though in the hurdle there when he failed to finish. He did win a steeple trial last time. He was put in at silly odds although that was with Stern Idol still in the race and I'm not surprised he's been backed in, but I think the value has gone now.
Instigator ran a huge race on Tuesday when putting it up to Stern Idol late on and it is not unusual for horses to run in both races so has another chance here.
The only other one with a chance is Budd Fox who jumped really well to win at Pakenham and beat Tom Foolery who obviously franked the form today. He is the main horse who is running from out of the handicap, but that was his first jumps race since 2022 so he should improve for it. He was also 2nd in the longest flat race in Oz which is here over 4600m so the trip shouldn't be an issue either.
I do think Rockstar Ronnie is the one to beat again as he ran a fantastic trial for this at Pakenham and we know this test suits him perfectly. Vanguard won the Brieley 2 years ago and then slipped in this when fav and the 4th last year was obviously solid. There was lots to like about his prep run as well so he will be the other horse I cover in what should be a cracking race,
Rockstar Ronnie 2pts @ 3/1 with Bet365
Vanguard 1pt @ 7/1 with Bet365
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Ascot 1450
Got to love a grey
8 bet365
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16-50 punch the yellow clay 20/1 hills
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B/Fwd - 78.80 L15's and RC P/L (incl L15's) - 110.70
Had 3 15's on the daily today = 4.50 points
1.10 Asc Rock Hunter 1.50 win at 5/2
3.25 Asc Glamorous Breeze 0.50 ew at 11/1 4p (let's hope the rain stays away for this race)
Total stakes today = 7 points
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I'm going crazy with a £1 EW bet on
OUR GIRL SAL
3:05 Punchestown. 80/1 at Bet365.
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