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Total Posts -
Posts
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2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:
Can you not rate Henry Longfellow as though its last 2 races were class 1 which they were? Or is the system more complex than that?
To calculate the going allowance for the total card I would have to know the class adjustment for each race on the card.
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2 hours ago, harry_rag said:
This does seem to be an unfortunate flaw in that it means you can’t properly rate some of the biggest and best races. Obviously it’s good that your process will be largely automated for a lot of races but it would be good if you could have a quick way to come up with an indicative rating for such horses so you can fully rate the big events when you want to. It will certainly make any comparison of different people’s ratings more valuable.
I assume some of the other posters with a more flexible approach could help you come up with a viable and reasonably quick approach?
I'm getting a bit lazy in my old age, I enjoy the analysis of my data but don't really enjoy manually inputting data which is what I would have to do for the foreign races.
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Just now, LeMale said:
My 2 pennies worth is, it's very much swings and round-abouts and as a @Zilzalian Type 2.5 (kind of inbetween) i make a judgement call depending on the odds at the time i'm betting, which can be very beneficial (like in the race you mentioned - placed bet at 16-1 with 365 win bet not ew because price too low, got BOG as sp was 33-1) or can backfire badly, just like the race after that with Moutarde where i split the bet, half at 40-1 (and 2 mins after went to 50-1) and half at sp both ew with skybet. At the time i was gutted i took the 40's as price was rising, but like i said, it backfired because it went off at 12-1 i think and lost £16.80 on the sp bet. I will try to put them on here at the end as don't want anybody thinking i'm a "hindsight punter" as long as no one laughs at my stakes. (it's what keeps it fun and not really gambling in my eyes) It can be frustrating when that 16-1 shot drifts to a big price (a price that i would normally bet ew) and it places, so i get nothing, but when it wins like yesterday i make more, like i said, swings and round-abouts you have to take the rough with the smooth, that's racing.
Couldn't put both up, so here's the other one.
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15 hours ago, harry_rag said:
I'll stick this in here as it seems legitimate as a variable to be considered before placing a bet (and follows up on a recent discussion). The issue of how you decide whether to go for the best price or the extra places when betting each way.
Having had a look at the 7:50 in Naas (19 runners), Sky are going 6 places from 4 though most firms are offering 5 anyway. I've looked at a couple of runners:
- Captured 18/1 to 6 places v 25/1 to 5 places (5th the odds)
- Calamint 16/1 to 6 places v 18/1 to 5 places (5th the odds)
My gut reaction is that the drop in price for the first horse is a bit steep but the second one isn't that significant. I've quickly crunched some numbers that give the following ratings (in terms of the decision about whether to favour the extra places); Captured at 0.74 v Calamint at 1.89. That's based on the gain in places (positive) and the reduction in price (negative) and the bigger the number the better the extra place option is.
Out of interest, how do you racing punters feel about those two options. Would you tend towards the better price for the first one but the extra place for the second?
My 2 pennies worth is, it's very much swings and round-abouts and as a @Zilzalian Type 2.5 (kind of inbetween) i make a judgement call depending on the odds at the time i'm betting, which can be very beneficial (like in the race you mentioned - placed bet at 16-1 with 365 win bet not ew because price too low, got BOG as sp was 33-1) or can backfire badly, just like the race after that with Moutarde where i split the bet, half at 40-1 (and 2 mins after went to 50-1) and half at sp both ew with skybet. At the time i was gutted i took the 40's as price was rising, but like i said, it backfired because it went off at 12-1 i think and lost £16.80 on the sp bet. I will try to put them on here at the end as don't want anybody thinking i'm a "hindsight punter" as long as no one laughs at my stakes. (it's what keeps it fun and not really gambling in my eyes) It can be frustrating when that 16-1 shot drifts to a big price (a price that i would normally bet ew) and it places, so i get nothing, but when it wins like yesterday i make more, like i said, swings and round-abouts you have to take the rough with the smooth, that's racing.
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5.00 Yarmouth, Rajindri, 6/1 WH
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