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    3. Betting Systems & Strategy

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  • Posts

    • Bet 9. Swiatek to beat Fett @ 1.03

    • Thanks @MCLARKE I'll leave it as is then !

        37 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

      It looks like the logic behind this is working again after a few dodgy years.

      Expand  

      Yes fortunately it is - would have been happier if @ralphie7  was well enough to do it!  For the record, I went each way because of the price I got.

      Edited by Xray
    • Todays results -

      Cheltenham     2.40    Riskintheground    9/1ew             £2.00    365------1st 15/2 won £10.80
      Gowran Park    4.17    Neo Smart              9/2ew    4pl    £2.00    365------non runner

      Won                   £10.80
      New total won  £50.67

    • Saint Palais ew

      18:45

    • Curiosity sufficiently piqued to do a bit of analysis, last 5 Masters and US Opens based on e/w down to 10 places.

      • Number of players finishing in the top 10 including ties 116 (average 11.6 per tournament)
      • Number entirely in the top ten 81 (so full payout)
      • Number involving ties 35 (so dead heat rules apply)
      • Suggesting that roughly 2/3 of your placed golfers would get a full payout while 1/3 would see some sort of reduction
      • In half of the events 9 players got the full payout with the tie being for the final place
      • The remainder saw 8 players get the full payout twice, 7 twice and 6 once
      • Worst case scenario in terms of the reduction were 2 years where there was a 4 way tie for 10th place so returns were to 25% of stake
      • There were 3 years where it was 50% (all 2 way ties for 10th place)
      • In the other 3 years the return ranged from 60% to 75%
        40 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

      I like your points about the places but it just doesn't fit with my head

      Expand  

      I get that, I see how much the price is shorter for more places and it puts me off, then I look at how much bigger still it is on the exchange and it feels like an even worse option. You'd need to perceive enough value in the place odds to accept the shorter price you were taking for the win, But then again, there's only ever one winner paid out on while there might be 12 or more places! :loon

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