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“Heat Map” for tonight’s Prem game. Top line figures relate to Arsenal scoring 26 goals in their last 13 games, scoring in 11 of them with both teams scoring in 7. Merino "hottest" for Arsenal scoring 6 goals (one brace) in 5 of those games. Mateta for Palace with 7 in 6 (one brace, one penalty).
May or may not be of use or interest to anyone thinking of betting on the game!
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Lingfield
4:50 - Roi de Baviere 22/ E/W
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But Irish racing is worse than GB when it comes to the top horses in the hands of very few trainers, I struggle to think of a flat trainer in Ireland that's not called O'Brien
Weld , Bolger , Harrington but I know where you're coming from , same as with the Mullins's in N/H , but I did put unlike in my comment , I do like the fact they have days off from racing , no wonder they win nearly everything , way too much dross / low quality in UK only to appease the courses to get their media rights cash .
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Tough month this month though perked up a bit over the weekend. The positive note is that system bets have made a profit but not as much as was lost on "chasing" bets (bookies price too short so I try and get my target price on the exchange) and "studied" bets where I exercise my "skill and judgement". There's perhaps a growing argument for just sticking to the system.
In terms of the tweaks I made to the system rules this is the performance overall of the types of bet in question.
BA 30 -11.05 -36.83% AC 26 -9.93 -38.19% As I now back the BA bets the loss is a negative but I'm not worrying about a sample size of 30 in a bad month where, overall, the system has turned a profit. As I now don't automatically back the AC bets I'm happy to see them showing a loss. In terms of real money bets it looks like this.
BA 17 4 -£4.07 -23.95% AC 12 2 -£5.55 -46.25% So I couldn't get on all of the BA bets but have still shown a loss and have made a loss on the AC bets that I decided to bet after looking at the stats. I think the message there may be a stark one; don't back bets that the system tells you to avoid especially given that you don't make a profit from "studied" bets generally!
Will check again at month end but going to need to run this for quite a while longer to judge it. Hopefully the BA bets will end up in the black and the AC bets will continue to be best swerved.
TYPE BETS WINS P/L ROI AFTM 37 19 £18.89 51.05% BFTM 66 22 -£2.13 -3.23% CFTM 65 17 -£9.47 -14.57% Total 168 58 £7.28 4.34% Follow the Money bets currently looking like this. A (where I'm backing it anyway) looking safe enough, a mounting case for not backing C (less than my fair price) with B (better than fair) slipping slightly into the red. Need more data so will continue to back and monitor (only having £2 on the C bets for tracking purposes).
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Bishop Hill 10/1 win
4.22 Perth
Bet365
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