Grand National Trends

Around a month after the Cheltenham Festival, the entire country diverts its attention to one race: the iconic Grand National. Run over a near four and a quarter mile trip, the nation holds its breath following what is usually a feverish two-day build-up.

The race usually takes around ten minutes to run over what has to be the most famous racecourse in all of Britain, Aintree Racecourse. Throughout this piece, I will analyse the winning trends, betting patterns, and historical statistics.

It can often pay to look back at the roll of honour to see if you can distinguish common Grand National winner trends. Together, we will focus on factors such as conditions, age, and whether or not prior course form is an important consideration.

Grand National Winners List

One sure-fire way to spot any trends for winning the Grand National is by scanning through the past winners. Here is a comprehensive list of previous Grand National winners.

Grand National Winner Trends

Taking a look back through the past winners of the Grand National can offer a fascinating insight into any trends or patterns that might provide clues that point towards any potential future winners. Here are some standout trends for previous winners of the racing showpiece event.

• The vast majority of Grand National winners are aged between eight and eleven years old. Recent renewals have indicated that those in the younger side of this are more favoured, but the races in 2012, 2013 and 2014 were all won by horses aged eleven.
• Horses carrying less than eleven stone are generally more favoured to win. This is a stamina-sapping contest, and carrying more than this weight can skew the race against you.
• Only ten of the last forty-five have done so, including the likes of I Am Maximus 2024, Many Clouds in 2015 and Neptune Collonges 2012.
• Gordon Elliott has a fantastic record in this race as a trainer. He has won it three times since 2007 with the likes of Sliver Birch (2007) and Tiger Roll (2018 & 2019).
• Lucinda Russell also knows the time of day when she brings down her horses from Scotland. She has won the race twice in the last ten years with the likes of Oneforarthur (2017) and Corach Rambler (2023).
• The likes of Davy Russell and Leighton Aspell have now retired, but the hunger to win this race from those who remain is insatiable.
• The leading jockey coming into this year’s renewal is Derek Fox. He was on board Oneforarthur and Corach Rambler.
• Recent race winners, including Rachael Blackmore and Paul Townend, would dearly love to win this race again. Time is still very much on their side, and given the trainers that they usually ride for, they are more than capable of doing it a couple more times.

Betting Trends and Popular Picks

You would think that picking a horse in a race that features up to thirty-four runners would be like searching for a needle in a haystack. Recent Grand National statistics show that it isn’t necessarily the case with three of the last five Grand National winners heading the market (I Am Maximus, Corach Rambler and Tiger Roll). Two of those last three winners had also won on their previous start, so good recent form does seem to be an essential ingredient.

Course and Distance Might Not Matter

Whilst previous course and distance winning form would seem to be an obvious asset around Aintree, I Am Maximus was able to win last year’s race on what was his debut appearance at the track. The race itself does take a lot out of the lesser experienced and younger horses.

I Am Maximus has not looked the same horse since taking the prize last season. Corach Rambler also failed to find his true form again, having won the race in 2023.

Is Each-Way The Best Way?

Close to £200 million was bet on the Grand National in 2024 and that will only be expected to increase this year. The race captures the imagination of the betting public and with social media now in full flow, a tip for the race is never hard to find.

The vast majority of punters have a single bet on this one race in particular. Due to the large field and the prices of the runners, it makes a lot of sense for punters to place an each-way bet on the race. Many bookmakers offer extra places as a one-off feature for the race to get the most customers.

Tri(Cast) Something Different

Always search around for the best odds and never feel obligated to use the same bookmaker repeatedly. More adventurous punters will also try to predict the first two or three horses to finish in what is known as a forecast or tricast. The payouts if these land can be spectacular for only a small sum.

Key Course and Race Trends

Aintree is a mainly flat course, so the emphasis is always on speed. Even over a trip as vast as this, a decent position throughout the race is always key. Whilst many changes have been made to the race and fences over the years, they remain a formidable obstacle for any horse and rider. The Chair, Valentines and Beecher’s Brook all make us draw for breath when we think of horses jumping them.

Fewer Horses Are Falling

The year 2024 saw no official fallers in the race, although four horses did unseat their riders. That is down massively from 2021, when there were five fallers in the race itself. No matter whether you have backed a horse that falls or not, there is no better sight than seeing them get up after a tumble.

Watch Out for the Rain!

Last year also saw the highest amount of finishers (21) since 2005. The weather naturally plays a part, and usually, the better the day, the likelier it is that a large number of horses will finish the race. If the rains come and the ground is bottomless, it can be a long way home for many of them, and they will be looked after by their jockeys.

Beware of the Bad Breeders

Some other vital statistics for this race are to avoid horses that are bred by the following stallions: Flemensfirth, Accordion, Kings Theatre, Network and Shantou. They have had 74 attempts collectively from their offspring without a hint of success.

Are Some Jockeys Destined to Fail?

Multiple jockeys have not had the best of times over the last in recent renewals of the Grand National, Sam Twiston-Davies (0-13), Mark Walsh (0-12), Richie McLernon (0-10) and Nick Scholfield (0-10) have all failed to produce a single winner despite sending multiple rides to the race.

Expert Insights and Predictions

There are several horse racing trends to take into account when it comes to the Grand National. On the day, you will need a horse that handles the ground and the conditions. Ideally, you will want a selection with a feasible weight (under eleven stone).

Back the Favourites

You want a horse that is well handicapped and go for a jockey who knows the course well. The formbook can sometimes be thrown out of the window in a race like this, as Mon Mome (100/1) showed when winning the race in 2009. The winner usually does come from the first dozen in the betting, but shocks can occur.

Study the Racecards and Enjoy!

By taking into account all that has been mentioned above, you can draw your own conclusions on how to try and select the winner of the 2025 Grand National. Always remember that this race is a unique experience and form doesn’t always translate as you think it should. All you can do is study the Grand National racecards and check out our Grand National tips on the day of the race.

There aren’t too many races run over this extreme trip, so always only bet what you can afford. You might want to back the favourite or a big-priced outsider and either can win, as has been proven.

Betting Trends for the Grand National: Final Thoughts

This is literally a race that stops the nation in its tracks. The betting public pauses to catch its breath as dreams of backing the winner of the Grand National are realised and shattered in equal measure. It’s always worth checking out what Grand National free bets are doing the rounds ahead of the feature race.

For ten minutes, the adrenaline is pumping not just in the horses and jockeys but in the millions of viewers who regularly tune in for this annual showcase. Remember to check back to Punters Lounge on the day to see our big race selection for the Grand National itself.