The St James’s Palace Stakes was first run in 1834, the race over a mile is strictly for three-year-olds. It usually throws up a fascinating clash between the various Guineas competitors from England, Ireland and France.
Guineas’ form would appear to be key. A dozen of the last twenty-three winners had run in both the Newmarket and Irish Guineas. Nine of the last ten winners of this race were found in the first three places in the betting market. Four previous winners of this race had run in both the British and Irish Guineas, with all making the frame in both races.
Seven of the last ten winners had finished at least placed in a version of the 2000 Guineas. Aidan O’Brien has won eight of the last twenty-three renewals. Only two of the last ten winners of this race were unplaced on their most recent start. Read on to see my Ascot tips for the St James’s Palace Stakes race on day one at Royal Ascot.
The Contenders
Paddington was a little slow away in the Irish 2000 Guineas at the Curragh when last seen out in May. The further into the race he went, the more he began to settle and in the end, he ran out a decisive winner when getting the better of stablemate Cairo by two lengths. On a strict line of form through Hi Royal, he should have the beating of his main rival in Chaldean, but as we all know anything can and will most likely happen. Aidan O’Brien hasn’t won this race since Circus Maximus landed the prize in 2019, but he will fancy his chances with this son of Siyouni who is undefeated in his last four starts.
Chaldean has won each of his completed starts including the English 2000 Guineas forty-five days ago. He had a little over a length to spare over Hi Royal on that occasion who followed up the effort with a credible effort in the Irish equivalent just a few weeks later. Frankie Dettori is riding in what will be his final Royal Ascot before he retires at the end of the season and he would love nothing more than to go out on a high here. Chaldean is unproven on anything quicker than genuine good ground but that would be only a minor concern.
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Cicero’s Gift looks to be very short given what he has actually achieved on the race track. As already determined, it usually takes a Guineas horse to win this and he only won a conditions race at Goodwood last time, with the form of the race not really working out thus far.
Isaac Shelby was an unlucky runner-up in the Poule d’Essai des Poulains just last month. It was still a solid effort following on from his seasonal winning reappearance at Newbury in the Group 3 Greenham Stakes. He looks sure to bounce off this lightning-fast ground and should run another big race for Brian Meehan and Will Buick.
Mostabshir won his sole start last season when beating Davideo at Kempton over a mile. He was then given a break until he contested the Craven Stakes at Newmarket and he failed to read the script, trailing in almost eight lengths behind Indestructible. A better performance came last time out where he got back to winning ways at York where he won a novices’ race by five lengths. It will take a massive step up in all known form for him to trouble the main protagonists.
Royal Scotsman has just failed to live up to expectations so far this season although he has competed in both the Irish and English Guineas. He was third to Chaldean at Newmarket and whether or not the travelling to Ireland threw him or whether the race came too quick, he was ultimately disappointing at the Curragh in the Irish Guineas trailing in ninth of eleven when beaten over seven lengths by Paddington. A return to home soil could see him run much better but it is a big ask now.
St James’ Palace Stakes Betting Tips
This looks to be a battle between the Irish and English 2000 Guineas heroes Paddington and Chaldean. The vote will go with the Irish raider who has not tasted defeat since making his racecourse debut in September 2022. He has won at listed and now Group One level and should continue on an upward trajectory. Aidan O’Brien has won this race on eight occasions and knows the exact type of horse that it takes, whilst Andrew Balding has never won it and that could be the deciding factor.
Chaldean has done nothing wrong but he showed a little temperament when unseating his jockey in the Greenham Stakes. He proved that to be completely out of character by winning the English 2000 Guineas next time and looks certain to play a massive role in the final stages here.
Isaac Shelby looks as though he is a smart type and is unfortunate not to remain unbeaten so far this season and he should run another big race. He is perfectly happy on the ground and at the trip so his claims can’t be denied. So, here are my top tips for St James’ Palace Stakes:
Paddington @ 5/2 with BetVictor promo code
Chaldean @ 9/4 with William Hill promo code
Isaac Shelby @ 9/1 with Bet365 bonus code
All odds are accurate at the time of writing.
