This weekend’s big handicap chase is the Paddy Power Gold Cup (known to many as “The Mackeson Gold Cup”). It is open to horses aged 4 or older and runs over 2 miles 4 furlongs. Off time is 2.20 and 16 go to post.
Notable winners of this race include Coole Cody who won this race in 2020 before going on to win over a similar distance at the following year’s Cheltenham festival. Both Le Prezien and Frodon have been placed in the race before going on to win at the festival.
Many of the leading bookmakers offer each-way terms of 5 places which makes the race an excellent betting proposition.
Don’t Fall Into The Trap
I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 seasons and these are my key conclusions.
- Avoid those horses with “obvious” winning form. There were 66 horses that had recorded more than 1 win out of their last 6 runs and only one of these went on to win. This is good news for us as these will be the horses that most punters will be drawn to, leaving the value elsewhere.
- Those horses carrying a lot of weight do not have a good record. There have been 80 horses carrying more than 11 stones and only 2 have won. There have been 7 winners from the 73 runners carrying lower weights.
This reduces the field to 4, DEYRANN DE CARJAC (25/1), GALAHAD QUEST (11/1), STORM CONTROL (40/1) and IL RIDOTO (17/2). My horse racing tips would be backing these each way with bookmakers who are offering 5 places.
For those who would like to narrow the field down further, there are some other statistics that may prove relevant.
Experience is Key
Experience is key with 4 winners from 19 runners having had at least 23 career runs, compared to 5 from 143 for the less experienced runners. DEYRANN DE CARJAC has had 25 runs and STORM CONTROL has had 28. Galahad Quest has had 15 runs whilst Il Ridito has had just 6.
- Favourites have a poor record with no winners in the last 9 years
- One 2nd favourite has won during that period and no 3rd favourites winning
- Nine-year olds have the best record with 3 wins from 24 selections
- All previous 9 winners had won over the distance previously and 6 of them had previously won at Cheltenham
- Of those 18 runners that were sent off as favourite last time out only 1 won
- Jonjo O’Neill has trained the winner of this twice during the last 9 years whilst the winners have been shared between different jockeys
