By Points Per Game projections, 80 points would suffice for automatic promotion for Burnley, who find themselves on 72 with 14 games to play after last night’s 1-0 win at Luton.
It’s a matter of when, not if, automatic promotion is sealed for the Clarets, who are 15 points clear of third-placed Middlesbrough with a game in hand, and 11 clear of would-be title rivals Sheffield United.
Hoping to join Vincent Kompany’s side in the Premier League are Millwall, who broke into the top six on Saturday thanks to a 3-2 victory over the Blades: they now plan to trip up another high-flyer at the Den. Here is my Millwall vs Burnley betting preview that takes a look at the stats, information, and odds you’ll need for this game.
Millwall’s big-game strength
Millwall have taken 13 points from six home games against top 10 opposition, which shows they do have the capacity to raise their games for the big occasions, as they did on Saturday. Tom Bradshaw bagged a hat-trick for the Lions, as his combination play with Oli Burke, Zian Flemming and Andreas Voglsammer came to fruition.
Earlier in the season, the South Londoners were knocking the ball long without having a focal point to hit, but now they’re being a lot braver on the ball and finding ways to play it forward quickly with intent, but also with quality and accuracy.
Millwall have lost just twice in their last 10 league games, taking 18 points, so the Play-Off challengers should not be underestimated.
Burnley surging to the finish line
When Burnley thrashed Preston North End 3-0, they equalled a club record set in 1913 of 10 league wins in a row, and while they were unable to break it against Watford, Michael Obafemi’s injury-time leveller preserved an unbeaten run, which was extended to 12 through a 1-0 victory at Luton last time out.
The Clarets are not at full strength defensively, with Taylor Harwood-Bellis being a long-term absentee, though Jordan Beyer, who went off injured against Watford, might return after missing the trip to Kenilworth Road.
Beyer being fully fit could be key for Kompany, who needs to pick a centre-back partner for the impressive Hjalmar Ekdal: Charles Taylor filled in admirably in midweek but it’s not his preferred position, while Ameen Al-Dakhil is unproven.
If Millwall can gain any encouragement ahead of facing such formidable opposition, it’s that they could be got at if Beyer isn’t 100% fit, Taylor is not fully comfortable at centre-back in a four, or if Al-Dakhil’s inexperience shows.
The tactics board
Whenever Millwall play at the Den, the onus is always on them to squeeze the pitch, press high, and be very aggressive, no matter the opposition: it’s what home fans demand.
As such, it’s plausible that the first half is a difficult one for Burnley, who may either get caught out if they dwell on the ball for too long, or adapt by playing longer passes earlier, and play their way into the game once they’ve quietened the crowd.
The Clarets have a plethora of attacking options on the bench: Scott Twine, for instance, would have been a marquee signing for Millwall had he gone there last summer, yet at Turf Moor, partly but by no means entirely due to injury, he’s only played 59 minutes of football.
Twine, £6.2M January recruit Lyle Foster, £3M fellow striker Michael Obafemi, £1.8M utility man Vitinho and Morocco international Anass Zaroury were all in reserve for Burnley last time out, which shows Kompany has the means to change games that aren’t going his side’s way.
Millwall vs Burnley betting tips
Burnley have scored 38 second half goals, more than any other side in the Championship. The East Lancashire outfit have been level at the break in 15 of their 32 league games, and gone on to win on 10 occasions. With that in mind, the Half-Time/Full-Time: Draw/Burnley is available to back at 9/2.
Plus, Kompany might fancy the aggression and tenacity of Ashley Barnes for this type of assignment – the striker is priced at 3/1 to score anytime in South Bermondsey.
Half-Time/Full-Time: Draw/Burnley @ 9/2 with Bet365
Ashley Barnes to score anytime @ 3/1 with William Hill
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