It was a good result for us last Saturday with Green Book winning at 10/1. This increases our profit to £184, backing to £20 stakes, with 3 winners and 7 places from 27 selections. This weekend’s racing delivers some exciting action across the racecourses but I’m turning my attention towards the big betting race this Saturday which is the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury.
This premier handicap is run over 2 miles and 69 yards and is open to horses aged 4 years or older. 18 go to post and the off time is 3.35. Persian War and Make A Stand won this previously before going on to win the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham a month later. Some bookmakers offer each-way terms of 6 places which makes the race an excellent betting proposition.
THE WINNER DOESN’T TAKE IT ALL
I have looked at the statistics for this race and these are my key conclusions.
45 horses have started this race after winning their previous race and, astonishingly, none of them have managed to win. If you backed those horses that were 2nd or 3rd last time you would have had 7 winners from 52 selections and a level stakes profit of 64 points.
It is better to stick with outsiders. Those with forecast odds between 16/1 and 33/1 have recorded 5 wins from 75 runners and a profit of 52 points. It could certainly be worth backing them if you find the right horse racing betting offers on the market.
Young horses have a better record than their older competitors. Horses aged 7 or above have only recorded 1 win from 68 attempts, the younger horses 7 from 98 with a profit of 31 points.
Your selection should be relatively fresh. Those that last ran between 17 and 42 days ago have 5 wins from 59 runners and made a profit of 59 points.
There is only 1 horse that matches these criteria. The horse is Master Chewy and is trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies who has won this 3 times in the last 9 years and is ridden by his son Sam who has won this two times in the last 6 years. I recommend backing this each way.
MASTER CHEWY – available at 12/1 with Bet365 who are paying 5 places.
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