The Epsom Oaks is the third classic of the season and is a Group 1 contest for the best middle-distance three-year-old fillies in Europe. The race is run over a distance of a mile and a half and is a true test of both speed and stamina. Many greats have won the race over the years with Aidan O’Brien winning the race 10 times (6 of the last 8) with John Gosden winning the two missing years in that sequence.
Jockey Ryan Moore has won the race four times whilst Frankie Dettori has won the race five times including with the great Enable back in 2017. This year’s renewal may well turn out to be a battle between the two great jockeys. Here are my expert horse racing tips, trends and analysis for the Betfred Oaks.
Be Happy
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Jockey: Seamie Heffernan
One of three Aidan O’Brien runners in the race. Ran well on re-appearance when third in Group 3 in France and ran to the same level when runner up to Godolphin’s Eternal Hope in the Lingfield Oaks Trial run on the all-weather. Bit to find with the principals.
Current odds: 33/1
Bright Diamond
Trainer: Karl Burke
Jockey: Clifford Lee
Best run as a juvenile came when third in the Group 1 Fillies Mile at Newmarket, beaten 5 3/4L by Commissioning. Easy to back and a bit disappointing when only 5th in Lingfield Oaks Trial behind Eternal Pearl and Be Happy only run since. Needs to step up from that effort to have a place chance.
Current odds: 50/1
Caernarfon
Trainer: Jack Channon
Jockey: Connor Beasley
Ran well on her re-appearance when 4th (beaten 10 1/2L) to Mawj in the 1000 Guineas. That was over a mile and on breeding there have to be serious doubts as to whether she’ll stay this trip of 1M 4F.
Current odds: 33/1
Eternal Hope
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Jockey: William Buick
A lightly raced and improving Teofilo filly who’s yet to race on turf. She improved from a maiden win at Chelmsford to winning the Lingfield Oaks Trial run on the all-weather surface by 1 3/4L from Be Happy. Was supplemented for this at a cost of £85,000. Stable form is a bit of a worry.
Current odds: 12/1
Heartache Tonight
Trainer: David Menuisier
Jockey: Cristian Demuro
A half-sister to the stables Group 1 winning mare Wonderful Tonight and has shown plenty of ability of her own in three starts in France. The best effort came when 4th, beaten 1 1/2L, in Group 1 Prix Saint-Alary earlier this month. The step up in trip will suit but has only raced on soft ground. The best of the outsiders although would have preferred softer ground and is the top French jockey’s first run at Epsom.
Current odds: 18/1
Maman Joon
Trainer: Richard Hannon
Jockey: Kevin Stott
Owned by Amo Racing and has had just one career start when running the impressive Gather Ye Rosebuds to 9 1/2L in a Newbury 10F maiden on soft ground in April. The winner was put in her place in the Musidora and that form is hardly good enough.
Current odds: 40/1
Red Riding Hood
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Jockey: Wayne Lordan
Another Aiden O’Brien filly who broke her maiden at Dundalk on the sand in April at 2/7. Wore first-time blinkers when third, beaten 3/4L in 10F Group 3 at Naas at the beginning of the month so has plenty to find.
Current odds: 40/1
Running Lion
Trainer: John & Thady Gosden
Jockey: Oisin Murphy
Won her last four starts (three on the all-weather) and took her form to another level when an easy winner of the listed 10F Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket’s Guineas meeting. She came home 4 1/2L to the good that day from Sumo Sam, who’s been beaten since at odds on so it may not have been the strongest renewal of that race. Connections aren’t sure whether she’ll stay 1M 4F and question marks hang over her for that reason.
Current odds: 11/2
Savethelastdance
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Followed a Leopardstown maiden win on soft ground (form worked out well) with a staggering 22L victory in the Cheshire Oaks on soft ground. Visually very impressive and must go very close here as long as there’s some cut in the ground. Interestingly her part owner Paul Smith was saying after Chester that he thinks she will be even better on better ground. No value in the price now but massive chance.
Current odds: 5/4
Sea of Roses
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Jockey: Rib Hornby
Runner up in a Group 3 in France on re-appearance prior to finishing 7 3/4L 5th of 8 in Musidora behind Soul Sister. Has a bit to find on that run and would only hold a small place chance.
Current odds: 50/1
Soul Sister
Trainer: John & Thady Gosden
Jockey: Frankie Dettori
Obviously hated the soft ground at Newbury on re-appearance (also apparently resented wearing a cross noseband) when finishing plum last of twelve beaten some 22L but turned in a much-improved run when winning the Musidora Stakes at York when always travelling well on the better ground on the near side and running out a 4L winner (Sea Of Roses behind and looks held). The extra furlong and a half shouldn’t be an issue and holds a major chance.
Current odds: 5/2
Betfred Epsom Oaks Betting Tips
This may well revolve around the two fillies at the top of the market in Aiden O’Brien’s Savethelastdance and John and Thady Gosden’s Soul Sister.
The former was so impressive at Chester but that did come on soft ground and the big question with her is whether she handles this sounder surface (although the course has been well watered this week).
I prefer Soul Sister who had a valid excuse on her reappearance (soggy ground and not taking to a cross noseband) and looked like a quality filly for a stable that knows how to train the fairer sex. She’s the pick for me.
Her stable mate Running Lion isn’t a certain stayer and I’m not quite sure what she beat at Newmarket in the Pretty Polly.
David Menuisier’s Heartache Tonight is a half-sister to the stable’s Group 1 winning mare Wonderful Tonight and as long as the ground is not riding fast then she can outrun her double-figure odds and possibly hit the frame.
SOUL SISTER 2 points win @ 5/2 with BetVictor promo code
All odds are accurate at the time of writing.
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