The Oaks is only just over a week away and with all the trials done and dusted it seems a good time to have a look at the historic race afresh. With just two declaration stages remaining at the time of writing, we have 24 three-year-old fillies still left in the race which will be run at Epsom over 1M 4F on 2nd June. Here’s my horse-by-horse analysis with a suggested ante-post horse racing tip for the big race.
Ashtanga
Trainer: Freddie & Martyn Meade
A soft ground Nottingham maiden winner as a two-year-old she was beaten out of sight by current favourite Savethelastdance at Chester Racecourse in the Cheshire Oaks and it would be a major surprise were she to figure.
Current odds: 100/1
Be Happy
Trainer: Aiden O’Brien
One of nine Aiden O’Brien runners still in the race. Ran well on re-appearance when third in Group 3 in France and ran to the same level when runner up to Godolphin’s Eternal Hope in the Lingfield Oaks Trial run on the all-weather. Bit to find with the principals.
Current odds: N/A
Bluestocking
Trainer: Ralph Beckett
Looked useful when winning at Salisbury on her debut back in September and wasn’t disgraced on re-appearance when going down by a head to Aiden O’Brien’s Warm Heart in Newbury’s listed Oaks trial last weekend over 10F. This race may come a bit soon and Royal Ascot is probably more likely her target.
Current odds: N/A
Boogie Woogie
Trainer: Aiden O’Brien
Was 2 1/2L behind her stablemate and current favourite Savethelastdance in a maiden on her re-appearance at Leopardstown and subsequently broke her duck on her next start at Naas Racecourse. Upped in grade when her limitations were exposed in running 6th of 10 in the 10F Prix Saint-Alary earlier this month.
Current odds: 50/1
Bright Diamond
Trainer: Karl Burke
Best run as a juvenile came when third in the Group 1 Fillies Mile at Newmarket, beaten 5 3/4L by Commissioning. Easy to back and a bit disappointing when only 5th in Lingfield Oaks Trial behind Eternal Pearl and Be Happy only run since. Needs to step up from that effort to have a place chance.
Current odds: 50/1
Caernarfon
Trainer: Jack Channon
Ran well on her re-appearance when 4th (beaten 10 1/2L) to Mawj in the 1000 Guineas. That was over a mile and on breeding there has to be serious doubts as to whether she’ll stay this trip of 1M 4F.
Current odds: 50/1
Cloudbreaker
Trainer: Charlie Fellowes
Only rated 83 and was behind Bluestocking at Newbury Racecourse last week. Would be better off going down the handicap route and is a no-hoper.
Current odds: 100/1
Dance in the Grass
Trainer: Charlie Johnstone
Went off at 200/1 when running a respectable 5th (beaten 11 1/2L) in 1000 Guineas on her re-appearance. Plenty of stamina in her pedigree and she should improve for stepping up in trip. Could outrun her odds with stamina now drawn out.
Current odds: 40/1
Empress Wu
Trainer: David Simcock
Lingfield all-weather maiden winner as a juvenile. Was found out when stepping up in grade in the Musidora Stakes at York when finishing last but one of the eight runners, beaten 9 1/2L by Soul Sister. Unlikely to bridge that gap and hard to fancy.
Current odds: 100/1
Eternal Hope
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
A lightly raced and improving Teofilo filly who’s yet to race on turf. She improved from a maiden win at Chelmsford to winning the Lingfield Oaks Trial run on the all-weather surface by 1 3/4L from Be Happy. Has to be supplemented to run here at a cost of £85,000.
Current odds: N/A
Heartache Tonight
Trainer: David Menuisier
A half-sister to the stables Group 1 winning mare Wonderful Tonight and has shown plenty of ability of her own in three starts in France. The best effort came when 4th, beaten 1 1/2L, in Group 1 Prix Saint-Alary earlier this month. The step-up in trip will suit but has only raced on soft ground. Her trainer has stated she’s unlikely to run on good fast ground. If getting her conditions she’s no 40/1 chance.
Current odds: 40/1
Infinite Cosmos
Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute
Was well supported when winning her maiden at the Newmarket Guineas meeting and was well backed once more when stepping up in grade to run in the Musidora Stakes at York when going down by 4 1/2L to Soul Sister. Extra furlong and a half should suit but hard to envisage her turning the tables on the winner that day.
Current odds: 12/1
Jackie Oh
Trainer: Aiden O’Brien
Dam was first past the post in 1000 Guineas so classically bred. Only run the twice, winning a 1M Naas maiden on soft ground in March and runner-up in listed company at Navan the following month. One of 9 Aiden O’Brien possibles but will need to step her game up to feature here.
Current odds: 33/1
Maman Joon
Trainer: Richard Hannon
Owned by Amo Racing and has had just one career start when running the impressive Gather Ye Rosebuds to 9 1/2L in a Newbury 10F maiden on soft ground in April. The winner was put in her place in the Musidora and that form is hardly good enough.
Current odds: 50/1
Meditate
Trainer: Aiden O’Brien
One of the best two-year-olds around last season winning 5 of her 7 starts including the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf over a mile. Went off the second favourite in 1000 Guineas when only 6th to Mawj beaten 11 1/2L. Up half a mile here and unlikely to stay and an unlikely runner.
Current odds: 66/1
Never Ending Story
Trainer: Aiden O’Brien
Group 3 winner at Leopardstown in April and wasn’t totally disgraced when 5th in French 1000 Guineas last weekend, beaten only 5L. Yet to race beyond a mile though there’s stamina on both sides of her pedigree so may appreciate stepping up in distance now. Each-way claims.
Current odds: 16/1
Polly Pot
Trainer: Ben Pauling
Winner of the Group 2 May Hill Stakes as a juvenile for the now-retired Harry Dunlop. Has since joined predominantly jumps trainer Ben Pauling in the Cotswolds but has shown very little in two starts (1000 Guineas & Newbury Oaks Trial) and may not have trained on.
Current odds: 100/1
Red Riding Hood
Trainer: Aiden O’Brien
Another Aiden O’Brien filly who broke her maiden at Dundalk on the sand in April at 2/7. Wore first-time blinkers when third, beaten 3/4L in 10F Group 3 at Naas at the beginning of the month so has plenty to find.
Current odds: 66/1
Rich
Trainer: Richard Hannon
Beaten in Brighton handicap on a penultimate outing and has an official rating of only 87. Total no-hoper.
Current odds: 200/1
Running Lion
Trainer: John & Thady Gosden
Won her last four starts (three on the all-weather) and took her form to another level when an easy winner of the listed 10F Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket’s Guineas meeting. She came home 4 1/2L to the good that day from Sumo Sam, who’s been beaten since at odds on so it may not have been the strongest renewal of that race. Connections aren’t sure whether she’ll stay 1M 4F and question marks hang over her for that reason.
Current odds: 7/1
Savethelastdance
Trainer: Aiden O’Brien
Followed a Leopardstown Racecourse maiden win on soft ground (form worked out well) with a staggering 22L victory in the Cheshire Oaks on soft ground. Visually very impressive and must go very close here as long as there’s some cut in the ground. Interestingly her part owner Paul Smith was saying afterwards they think she will be even better on better ground. No value in the price now but massive chance.
Current odds: 11/8
Sea of Roses
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Runner up in a Group 3 in France on re-appearance prior to finishing 7 3/4L 5th of 8 in Musidora behind Soul Sister. Has a bit to find on that run and would only hold a small place chance.
Current odds: 50/1
Soul Sister
Trainer: John & Thady Gosden
Obviously hated the soft ground at Newbury on re-appearance (also apparently resented wearing a cross noseband) when finishing plum last of twelve beaten some 22L but turned in a much-improved run when winning the Musidora Stakes at York when always travelling well on the better ground on the near side and running out a 4L winner (Infinite Cosmos, Sea Of Roses & Empress Wu all behind and looking held). The extra furlong and a half shouldn’t be an issue and holds a major chance.
Current odds: 3/1
Unless
Trainer: Aiden O’Brien
Finally broke her maiden at Naas last week winning by 2 1/2L at their seventh attempt. Only rated 89 and unlikely to be troubling the judge.
Current odds: 50/1
Warm Heart
Trainer: Aiden O’Brien
Galileo filly who stepped up from her Leopardstown maiden victory when winning the listed 10F Newbury Oaks trial by a head from Bluestocking last week. Extra 2F shouldn’t be an issue and holds each-way claims as long as this race doesn’t come too soon.
Current odds: 14/1
Epsom Oaks Ante-Post Betting Tips
This may well revolve around the two fillies at the top of the market in Aiden O’Brien’s Savethelastdance and John and Thady Gosden’s Soul Sister.
The former was so impressive at Chester but that did come on soft ground and if, as looks likely, the ground rides on the better side next weekend she could be vulnerable, especially at her current odds.
I prefer Soul Sister who had a valid excuse on her re-appearance (soggy ground and not taking to a cross noseband) and looked like a quality filly for a stable who know how to train the fairer sex. She’s the pick of the current prices.
Her stable mate Running Lion isn’t a certain stayer and I’m not quite sure what she beat at Newmarket in the Pretty Polly whilst Infinite Cosmos looks comfortably held by the selection.
Were the ground to turn soft then David Menuisier’s Heartache Tonight a half-sister to the stable’s Group 1 winning mare Wonderful Tonight would be worth backing each way at around the 40/1 but she is very ground dependent.
SOUL SISTER 2 points win @ 3/1 with Bet365 bonus code
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