Day one of Glorious Goodwood although looking at the weather forecast for the week it’s hardly going to be that! The ground for the beginning of the Festival in Sussex is currently good to soft following rain over the weekend and with more rain forecast we’ll be looking for the mudlarks in the four scheduled ITV races. Read on to see which horses I am backing along with their Glorious Goodwood odds ahead of the first day of racing on Tuesday this week.
Goodwood 14:50
Sixteen handicappers declared for the valuable Chesterfield Cup Handicap run over 10F for four-year-olds and older. Sir Mark Prescott’s Eagles Way makes a quick re-appearance having started his season off with second at Yarmouth five days ago and is a potential improver having racked up a four-timer last season. It was good to soft at Yarmouth last week but he’s untested on anything worse than that and there is always the bounce theory.
The key piece of form here is the John Smith’s Cup where Pride Of America did well to get the call on the line from Astro King and as the Amy Murphy-trained six-year-old loves the mud should be a player here. Back in third that day was the Ed Dunlop-trained Haunted Dream (beaten 1 1/2L) and is now 2lb better off. That was the slowest ground he has raced on (good to soft) and is unproven on anything softer.
The horse I like though finished seventh that day (beaten 5 3/4L) which doesn’t really tell the whole story as William Haggas’s five-year-old exited from stall 20 and was plum last after a furlong having been dropped in. He ran on well to finish 7th and much more can be expected today as that was also his first run for 227 days. He was smart in France when trained by Mlle Stephanie Nigge and actually ran third in the 2021 French Derby. He looks primed to win now with the soft ground very much in his favour and he’s a confident each-way bet.
Local handler David Menuisier saddles his Caius Chorister with William Buick on board but he flopped last time so has a small question mark over him.
The Middleham stable of the Johnstons has a great record in the race having won it four times out of the last 9 years and is represented by Outbreak but he has yet to encounter soft ground so is readily overlooked. One horse who is particularly well handicapped is William Knight’s Moktasaab, who runs in the name of Harry Redknapp. He ran third in this contest a year ago off of a 5lb higher handicap mark and is back on a winning mark now. He does however have to prove his effectiveness on a slow surface.
The bet is Millesbosc who has his conditions here and will have Tom Marquand in the saddle exiting from stall ten.
MILLESBOSC 2 points e/w @ 5/1 with Bet365 bonus code (Paying top 5 places at 1/5 odds)
Goodwood 15:25
The 7F Group 2 Nicholson Gin Vintage Stakes has attracted nine runners and is for two-year-olds only.
There’s very little soft ground form available which makes things quite difficult here. Richard Hannon who had an impressive winning two-year-old colt at Ascot on Saturday in the shape of Rosallion saddles the Phoenix Of Spain colt Haatem. Fifth in the Coventry at Royal Ascot, he chased home the superstar City Of Troy in Newmarket’s Superlative Stakes at the July meeting on good to soft ground with stable mate Son 3 1/2L back in fifth and the Andrew Balding-trained Spanish Phoenix a further 1 3/4L away in sixth.
Haatem can confirm that form with that pair and looks like the one they all have to beat here. Chesham’s third Golden Mind trained by Richard Fahey and ridden by Frankie Dettori can also play a part in the finish but has yet to race on soft ground although was third on his debut on good to soft.
Charlie Hills has booked William Buick for his Newbury winner in June Iberian but with only one of the seven that followed him home that day winning since and being unproven on soft ground looks opposable here especially as he was pulled out on the morning of the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket’s July meeting due to soft ground.
Aiden O’Brien sends over Mountain Bear, a Curragh winner on good ground in June but was soundly beaten at Royal Ascot and was pulled out on account of sort ground at Leopardstown last week so is unlikely to like soft ground.
With Sean Levey in the saddle this can go the way of the Hannon juvenile Haatem who can boost the City Of Troy Newmarket form by taking this Group 2 contest.
HAATEM 2 points win @ 3/1 with Bet365
Goodwood 16:00
A field of nine assemble for the Group 2 World Pool Lennox Stakes run over 7F which features the day’s best bet. Ralph Beckett’s Kinross will be very hard to beat as long as he doesn’t find trouble.
Berthed in stall one, Frankie Dettori’s mount won this in 2021 and ran second to Sandrine last year with a never say die run on the rail from Dettori just failing to get up. He’s run over the furlong shorter trip of 6F this season and was not disgraced when running third to Shaquille in the Group 1 July Cup last time. Back up to his optimum trip on the ground that he loves with his trainer currently firing at a 30% win rate, he will be a tough nut to crack.
Al Suhail carries a 3lb penalty for his win at Meydan in March and was comprehensively beaten twice last year by Kinross whilst Newmarket winner Audience, trained by the Gosden’s, has yet to encounter soft conditions. Jumby was behind Audience last time along with Pogo who would appreciate a sounder surface.
There are four three-year-olds in the contest this year with the best of them, and Kinross’s main danger, is the Brian Meehan-trained Isaac Shelby who appears to adore soft ground. He was a winner at Newbury racecourse the first time out this season in the Greenham Stakes over this trip at Newbury on soft and was possibly unlucky not to win the French 2000 Guineas next time out when going down by a short neck. His subsequent fourth of 9 in the Group 1 St James Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot can be forgiven as that was run on good ground and wasn’t a bad effort anyway as he didn’t get a clear run that day. He looks the danger to the favourite Kinross and is worth a small stakes saver.
KINROSS 3 points win @ 13/8 with Betfred promo code
ISAAC SHELBY 1 point win @ 11/2 with William Hill promo code
Goodwood 16:35
A fair-sized field of eleven line up for the Group 1 2M Goodwood Cup. Five of the 11 ran in the Ascot Gold Cup last month over a half a mile longer trip with the lightly raced Gosden-trained four-year-old Courage Mon Ami doing us a favour with a majestic ride by Frankie Dettori, weaving through the field to beat Coltrane by a cosy 3/4L.
That was only his fourth-ever start and having previously won here looks the one to beat although there is a definite question mark over his ability to handle soft ground. Yet to race on a slow surface (his sire Frankel acted on any whilst his dam and relations kept away from soft ground) he may be vulnerable to a couple here dropping back to two miles.
Coltrane should go well although he too is unproven on soft ground and the horse I’m interested in is one of the two Aiden O’Brien runners in the four-year-old filly Emily Dickinson. She may not have stayed in the Ascot Gold Cup when 4 3/4L behind Courage Mon Ami in finishing fourth and has a record on soft ground of 1141. She has run out a comfortable 3L winner of the Group 2 Curragh Cup since over 14F and back to two miles looks posed to run a big race with Ryan Moore preferring her over Broome (William Buick).
Roger Varin’s Eldar Eldarov won last year’s St Leger and is another with claims with the drop back to two miles possibly in his favour. The best outsider appears to be Brian Ellison’s Tashkhan who is a real mud lover and is very capable if the mud is flying, he’s worth a small stakes each way saver.
A good renewal of this valuable staying race in which six of the last 7 favourites have won (three of those coming from the great Stradivarius) and as much as I would love to see Courage Mon Ami win here as he did us a big turn at Ascot we don’t bet with our heart so the bet is Emily Dickinson with a small saver on Tashkan.
EMILY DICKINSON 1 point e/w @ 13/2 with William Hill (Paying top 3 places at 1/5 odds)
TASHKAN 1/4 point e/w @ 20/1 with Bet365 (Paying top 3 places at 1/5 odds)
All odds are available at the time of writing.
