The ITV cameras roll on to Newbury (3 races) and Kelso (4 races) with the ground currently good to soft at Kelso (and likely to stay that way) and soft at Newbury with further rain to come so it would be no shock if the Berkshire track was to soften more. They also show the final three races from Meydan including the Dubai World Cup at 4.35. Here are my best ITV racing tips for Saturday.
Bet £10 Get £30 in free bets (mobile only)
Claim Offer18+. Play Safe. From 00:01 on 18.10.2022. £30 bonus. New customers only. Minimum £10 stake on odds of 1/2 (1.5) or greater on sportsbook (excluding Virtual markets). Further terms apply. #ad
Newbury 1.30
A dozen novice hurdlers face the starter in this 2m 3F valuable novices’ handicap hurdle. The likely favourite is the Gary Moore-trained Inneston who has already won in handicap company at Sandown in February and ran a stormer when runner-up in the EBF Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Final at the same track a fortnight ago. The handicapper has had his say mind in raising him 7lb but he still looks like the one they all have to beat.
Kerry Lee’s Atlanta Brave is making his handicap debut having won a couple of small races at Chepstow and Hereford back in January and is possibly well treated along with Chris Gordon’s Red Windsor whose recent second at Fontwell has been boosted by the subsequent victories of the winner and the fourth that day.
Michael Bell is better known as a flat trainer but his bottom-weight Artistic Choice ran well over the minimum trip here last time in handicap company and is yet another with claims now stepping up 3F in trip. It is a tough race to start the afternoon’s terrestrial TV action but I have to stick with Innneston whose second last time came in a better race than this and, under trainer’s son Jamie, should go very close with my next best being Red Windsor.
INNESTON 2 points win @ 10/3 with William Hill
Kelso 1.50
Run over 2m 5F next up we have the Bet Victor Go North Cab On Target Handicap Hurdle Final with a good-sized field of 15 facing the starter. Another hard race to crack although I do think that the Darragh Bouke-trained eight-year-old Coral Blue has a very solid look about him. He’s on a hat trick of wins having scored at Musselburgh and Ayr in February rising 13lb and with Sean Bowen taking the ride looks sure to be thereabouts.
Diane Sayer’s The Navigator is an interesting opponent but he’s down to run on Friday so must be considered doubtful. Sue Smith’s Prairie Wolf could also take a part in the finish having gone down by a short head at Doncaster to Galahad Threepwood earlier this month. He’s been given a 5lb rise for that effort but can be competitive under Ross Chapman. A tough race with preference just for Coral Blue who is still improving.
CORAL BLUE 1 point each way @ 6/1 with William Hill 1/5th 1234
Newbury 2.05
Just ten have declared for this class 2 2m 4f handicap chase and it’s fair to say that all ten have some sort of chance. Dan Skelton’s bottom weight Heltenham is the current favourite and must have a solid chance having been raised 7lb for his cosy 4L win at Ffos Las last month. Henry Oliver’s The Big Bite had Paul Nicholl’s Espoir De Guye 18L behind when winning the Greatwood Gold Cup over course and distance three weeks ago and it’s surprising that on 8lb better terms the latter is shorter in the betting currently.
Richard Hobson’s Riders On the Storm is back on a winning mark and in a first-time visor has to be respected but the one that takes my eye is the Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Super Six. He’s only had four runs over fences and is probably still on the upgrade. He was impressive when a 15L winner at Haydock last time and although he’s up 9lb for that run there may well be more to come with the trainer’s son Sam on top.
SUPER SIX 1 point each way @ 13/2 with William Hill 1/5th 1234
Kelso 2.25
Just the seven here for this class 2 3m 2f handicap hurdle. Cases can be made for all with bottom-weight Jet Legs my pick. He came late and fast to pass Shot Boi on the run in over 3M at Wetherby earlier in the month and today’s extra 2F look ideal for Martin Todhunter’s six-year-old. He’s been shunted up 5lb for that victory although with useful 5lb claiming conditional jockey Patrick Wadge taking over from 3lb claiming conditional Theo Gillard thus reducing the rise by a couple of pounds.
Top weight Pym will surely need this run his first for 538 days so the biggest threats may well come from the hat-trick seeking Nick Alexander-trained Theme Tune whose recent win at Newcastle was boosted by the subsequent win of the runner-up Bushypark and Samuel Drinkwater’s Spike Jones who was last seen when winning at his favourite track Fontwell on Danny Burton’s final ride before retiring.
JET LEGS 1 point win @ 10/3 with Bet365
Newbury 2.40
A mares-only novices’ handicap hurdle with a maximum field of 18 is up next and as you would expect has a very open look about it. Many have chances including handicap debutant Ruby Island from the Mark Walford stables and the Skelton runner Royale Dancer also making his handicap debut. Top weight Ilovethenightlife’s form ties in with Noel Williams’ Moviddy though have enough weight to my eyes.
On my shortlist is the very much in-form Nicky Richards runner Aubis Walk, a very easy 23L winner at Sedgefield last time who could be well treated under San Quinlan and Blue Beach who is trained by the under-estimated handler Mel Rowley. His form stacks up well having been impressive in his only bumper and running into the Cheltenham mares novice hurdle winner You Wear It Well back in October. She was a comfortable winner at 4/11 last time at Huntingdon and a mark of 108 may well underestimate her ability. With her jockey Alex Andrews claiming 3lb she’s my main bet here but I must have a small stakes each-way saver on the Northern raider Aubis Walk.
BLUE BEACH 1 point each way @ 12/1 with William Hill 1/5th 123456
AUBIS WALK 1/2 point each way @ 9/1 with William Hill 1/5th 123456
Kelso 3.00
A field of nine assemble for this class 2 mares’ novices handicap hurdle run over 2m and gives us a good betting opportunity in the shape of the Fergal O’Brien trained Bonttay who has a touch of class about her even if she can take a bit of a hold. She was a smart bumper horse winning three times including in listed company at Cheltenham and broke her duck over hurdles on the third time of asking when winning well at Exeter in February.
No match for the higher-rated Hourvari at Market Rasen since she can take this in first-time cheekpieces which hopefully will enable her to settle better. Her biggest threat may come from top weight Autumn Return whose latest second has been subsequently boosted by wins for the fourth and fifth that day and has the added bonus of 5lb conditional jockey Patrick Wadge on board. With Paddy Brennan here to ride Bonttay she can outclass these.
BONTTAY 3 points win @ 9/4 with Bet365
Meydan 3.10
With a cool £2,500,000 up for grabs for a first prize not surprisingly the 9F Dubai Turf has attracted a stellar international field of fifteen now with the late defection of favourite Do Deuce due to lameness. The Japanese still head the market however with the impressive Serifos who holds a decent chance. Ryan Moore who knows the Japanese form well made a point of mentioning another Japanese runner in Danon Beluga as well in his recent Betfair column so maybe he’s one to keep an eye on.
To be honest I’ve no idea how good the Far Eastern form is so I’ll be sticking with the European team which includes a Charlie Appleby pair of Nations Pride and Master Of The Seas with Buick presumably picking the former. John and Thady Gosden should never be discounted on their foreign trails and they have Lord North entered who prepped for this race by winning at Lingfield a month ago in the Winter Derby.
The one horse who looks a bit overpriced on his form is Saeed Bin Suroor’s Real Word who is actually the top-rated horse in the field. A smart gelding who was runner-up to Baaeed twice last year (what price would he be in this field?) and apparently badly needed his prep run for this race over course and distance with his trainer stating beforehand he was only 80-85% fit. On his best form and surely straighter now he may be the value bet each way from a favourable gate draw of 7 and with Oisin Murphy on top.
REAL WORLD 1 point each way @ 8/1 with William Hill 1/5th 1234
Kelso 3.35
Back at Kelso and it’s a 3M 2F class 2 handicap chase featuring ten runners. An interesting runner is the Irish-trained Clonguille Way in the care of John McConnell who brings just one runner over for this meeting so has to be respected. The horse that is very much in the upgrade unlike many of these is the Anthony Honeyball-trained Forward Plan who has won two of his three starts over fences both at Southwell in class 4 company.
This represents a step up in grade but he appears to be improving fast and even a 10lb rise for his latest victory may not be enough to stop this Ben Godfrey-ridden seven-year-old from getting his hat trick up. He’s the bet here but I ask you to keep an eye on Lucinda Russell’s Mighty Thunder who’s now rated 17lb lower than his Scottish National win of 2021. Today may not be the day for him but with that race on the horizon, it’ll be interesting to see if he shows any sparkle.
FORWARD PLAN 2 points win @ 3/1 with Bet365
Meydan 4.00
Ten assemble for the Dubai Sheema run over 12F of the turf course. The prize money is something else with the winner taking home a cool £3 million and even the 6th capturing £100k. With the bottom horse rated 113, this is a very classy international renewal as you would expect. The Japanese have 3 entries including the short-priced favourite Equinox who’s won two big races in his native country in the Arima Kinem and Tenno Sho and is (apparently!) the pick of that trio although he can take quite a keen hold.
Back to Ryan Moore again and his Betfair column and he put in a good word for Win Marilyn at a double-figure price. Moore himself rides last year’s Irish Derby winner Westover for Ralph Beckett and should be thereabouts. His Arc De Triomphe run can easily be dismissed as the race was run on ground that was too testing for him. Charlie Appleby’s runner is Rebels Romance who’s won his last five races in England x2, Germany x2 and America – a real tough horse who can also run well.
The bet though must be the John and Thady Gosden-trained Mostahdaf who looked an improved performer when bolting up in Saudi last month taking a race worth three-quarters of a million pounds apart winning by 7L over 1m 2 1/2F. He won’t mind stepping up in trip here and is worth an each-way bet under Jim Crowley who knows him so well.
MOSTAHDAF 1 point each way @ 13/2 with William Hill 1/5th 123
Meydan 4.35
The afternoon’s entertainment concludes with the £10 million guaranteed Dubai World Cup which will be run on the dirt over 10F. Fifteen go to post which includes last year’s winner Country Grammar trained in America by Bob Baffert. Last seen when runner up in the Saudi Cup in February securing a ridiculous £2,917,000 for being beaten!, he’ll be ready to roll this afternoon with Frankie Dettori looking to top up his coffers on board in his final year race riding. He has drawn stall 14 mind which is not ideal.
The British interest surrounds the Simon and Ed Crisford-trained Algiers who has taken his form to another level this year at Meydan winning two grade two’s by 6L. The Newmarket-based six-year-old will be ridden by James Doyle who has been on board for both starts this season. The only negative is the fact he’s been drawn out wide in stall 13 which is not ideal and he’ll be out wide with the favourite Country Grammar looking to get across.
The Japanese are a major force nowadays in these big international races and have eight running here. If he wasn’t drawn outside I would suggest a bigger bet on last year’s winner Country Grammar but with Dettori the master tactician I’m sure he’ll have a plan and I’ll take him to small stakes to win back-to-back Dubai World Cups.
COUNTRY GRAMMAR 1 point win @ 4/1 with William Hill
All odds are accurate at the time of writing.
Come back for our daily horse racing tips from our expert betting team.
