A cracking afternoon’s racing with the ITV team travelling to Sandown and Aintree. The feature races are the formers Tingle Creek and Aintree’s Becher Chase. The ground is on the soft side at Sandown for the chasers and softer on the hurdles course whilst Aintree will be racing on good to soft all round. Here’s my thought on today’s eight races.
Aintree 1.30
Only six chasers declared for this 3m 1F grade 2 Many Clouds Chase. Only 6lb cover the field on official ratings and with a short priced favourite Ahoy Senor who at around the 11/10 mark looks too short to my eyes with his lack lustre re-appearance effort fresh in the mind and his jumping mow under scrutiny. On his best form of last season of course he can win this but I’m happy to look elsewhere for some better value. Nicky Henderson’s JP McManus owned Chantry House is penalised 6lb here and seems to have two ways of running although first time out maybe the best time to play him. Last season’s Grand National winner Noble Yeats comes here on the back of a win at Wexford and is not out of it whilst Ruth Jefferson’s Sounds Russian is on the upgrade and is unpenalised here.
Sam Brown ran well on his re-appearance when third to Bravemansgame in the Charlie Hall, form that has already been boosted by the win of the 4th Paint The Dream, and can be competitive whilst Jeremy Scott’s Dashel Drasher is well treated by the weights and looks overpriced at a double figure price. In an open race I’m taking on the favourite Ahoy Senor and will dutch the pair of Dashel Drasher and Sam Brown.
DASHEL DRASHER 1 point win @ 12/1 BetVictor
SAM BROWN 1 point win @ 9/1 bet365
Sandown 1.45
Only four have declared for this year’s renewal of the Close Brothers Henry VIII Novices’ Chase run over just short of two miles. A hot favourite here is Jonbon (as long as trainer Nicky Henderson allows him to take part!) who is very hard to oppose. A top class novice hurdler last season who’s only defeat came at the hands of the freak that is Constitution Hill he made an impressive chase debut when beating two smart rivals at Warwick 17 days ago under regular jockey Aidan Coleman.
Boothill is his closest rival in the betting having won a decent Ascot handicap a fortnight ago and although officially rated only 5lb behind Jonbon I’ll be surprised if the favourites superiority wasn’t stronger than that. Unexpected Party is hard to fancy whilst rag Honneur D’jonc is way out of his depth (although will secure at least £4264 if completing). A no bet race for me but I’ld expect a comprehensive victory for Jonbon.
Aintree 2.05
The feature race of the day is the Becher Handicap Chase run over 3m 2F of the Grand National course. A bumper field of 23 will go to post and there is ample opportunity here for an each way bet (or two) with enhanced places. At the head of the market we have the Skelton’s Ashtown Lad who teed up for this in a warm handicap hurdle here a month ago when running well to finish third in a race that’s worked out very well with the winner and fifth going on to finish 2nd and 3rd in the Coral Gold Cup. He can be competitive and looks to give the Skelton’s a third consecutive big race winner on a Saturday. Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero’s Gesskille made his debut for his new stable when going down in a tight finish to Al Dancer over a five furlong shorter trip over these unique fences in the Grand Sefton a month ago and should run well if staying the extra distance. Back in third that day was Laura Morgan’s Percussion who was beaten 8L and can race here off of 7lb better terms. At four times the price Percussion is worth playing small each way.
My main selection though has to be last years winner Snow Leopardess who jumped really win that day to get the better of Hill Sixteen, who re-opposes on 3lb worse terms for a nose beating. She has excuses for her last efforts when pulling up with the first being the Grand National and on her re-appearance where she made a uncharacteristic blunder at the first where her jockey lost an iron and was quickly pulled up. If getting into an early rhythm the grey can repeat last years win and she’s the bet here with a small each way play on Percussion.
SNOW LEOPARDESS 1 point each way @ 12/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456
PERCUSSION 1/2 point each way @ 25/1 bet365 1/5th 123456
Sandown 2.20
Ten go to post for this two mile class 2 handicap hurdle. Warm favourite is the Harry Fry trained Love Envoi who makes her handicap debut having won 5 of her 6 starts as a novice last season culminating in victory in the mares’ novice hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. She did get beat at Fairyhouse the following month when failing to beat Willie Mullin’s useful mare Brandi Love but that did come at the end of a busy season for her. She loves deep ground and despite her odds should be hard to beat.
The obvious each way play against her is Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero’s Homme Public who’s up 7lb for a cosy win at Wetherby on her re-appearance. The useful Toby Wynne takes the ride now and claims a valuable 5lb which will help negate his rise. He looks the each way bet here with Love Envoi not having had a run this season and skinny enough in the market.
HOMME PUBLIC 1 point each way @ 9/2 William Hill 1/5th 1234
Aintree 2.40
Thirteen line up for this class 2 2m 4F handicap chase. Richard Hobson’s Riders On The Storm was runner up in this last year to Clan Legend (more on him later) and was an excellent winner on his re-appearance over course and distance in the Old Roan Handicap Chase, a race that’s already worked out extremely well with the 2nd Hitman and 3rd Ga Law winning big races since. He looks the one they all have to beat with his love of this flat track (form figures of 1201).
One horse who looks well over priced is the Nick Alexander trained Clan Legend who has won the last two running of this race beating the aforementioned Riders On The Storm by 3 1/2L last year and is now 3lb worse off. On that running there shouldn’t be much between them but Clan Legend is currently six times bigger! He ran well on his seasonal debut when runner up over three miles and this drop to two and a half miles looks likely to suit. I’m happy enough to back both last years one – two here.
RIDERS ON THE STORM 2 points win @ 11/4 bet365
CLAN LEGEND 1 point each way @ 16/1 bet365 1/5th 1234
Sandown 2.55
Fingers crossed that all six run here in this excellent renewal of the Tingle Creek Chase run over just short of two miles. Edwardstone has missed a couple of engagements late in the day this season due to drying ground and last years Arkle winner has 15lb on official ratings to find with the front two in the market. Willie Mullins’ Gentleman De Mee beat Edwardstone at Aintree in April,but has questions to answer now following a disappointing re-appearance when unseating at the last at Naas when held. It’s hard to fancy Dunvegan whilst Funambule Sivola has a good record at around this trip with form figures of 112112112 and can outrun his odds of around 20/1 (it’s a shame no firm are betting three places in this six runner contest as he would of been worth chancing each way at those odds).
That leaves the big two in last year’s winner Greaneteen, trained by Paul Nicholls, who comes here on the back of an impressive win in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter a month ago and Nicky Henderson’s Shishkin who’s the bet here. Mrs J Donnelly’s chaser had won all seven of his chases coming in to the Champion Chase at Cheltenham in March when it was obvious from an early stage that he was never travelling and Nico de Boinville pulled him up after the 8th. It may have been his lung busting effort 53 days previous when beating Energumene at Ascot that was the reason or a rare bone disease that it transpired he was suffering with but one things for sure had he not run at Cheltenham he would be an odds on shot today. If back to his best surely he wins this.
SHISHKIN 2 points win @ 11/10 bet365
Aintree 3.15
A class 2 handicap hurdle concludes the day’s action at Aintree with thirteen going to post. Top weight Langer Dan appears to have plenty of weight off of twelve stone though obviously needed his last run so shouldn’t be dismissed easily. If there is a horse here who could blow these away it’s surely Nicky Henderson’s Walking On Air, who was pulled out at Newbury last weekend due to the drying ground. This will be his handicap debut with his trainer talking him up in recent stable tours. David Pipe’s Sizing Pottsie has been given a chance by the handicapper who has dropped him 10lb for his recent second whilst Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero’s Herbiers is another who could run well following his easy Newbury victory last month.
A tough handicap but it has to be Walking On Air who spent the Summer recuperating at Coolmore following a disappointing run at Aintree in April when he didn’t get the ideal preparation. He could end up a fair stayer, like his mother Refinement, and I’ll take him to take this off of what may well turn out to be a very lenient mark of 132 under Sean Bowen.
WALKING ON AIR 2 points win @ 10/3 bet365
Sandown 3.30
Eleven staying chasers line up for the last of the day at the Esher track for the class 2 3m 5F London National Handicap Chase where I think the top three in the handicap are the ones to be concentrating on. Favourite is Harry Fry’s Revels Hill who ran a good first run of the season at Ascot last month when runner up over an inadequate trip of 2m 5f and looks sure to go well. The only negative for him is the price at around the 15/8 mark. Venetia Williams is having her typical purple patch currently and her Quick Wave has to be a player here especially if strong in the market. Not seen for 327 days (which is never usually an issue with Williams’ runners) she looked good when hosing up at Ludlow when last seen and is now 7lb higher in the weights.
Deise Aba is my pick though, with a good record at Sandown of 1122 with the two defeats coming by a head and a nose including in this very race a year ago, he’s been teed up for this by his trainer Philip Hobbs by running over hurdles a month ago (form that has worked out well) and despite the steadier of ten stone looks sure to run well and I’ll play each way with the firms paying an extra place.
DEISE ABA 1 1/2 points each way @ 4/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234
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