Tuesday, November 5, 2024

The concluding day of the Cheltenham Festival evokes a blend of melancholy and excitement. The former arises from the realisation that it marks the culmination of the four-day spectacle, while the latter stems from the anticipation of the thrilling events yet to unfold. Kicking off with the Triumph Hurdle and culminating in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle, the day promises to extend the festival’s vibrant energy.

Notable moments are abundant, especially in the opener, with poignant memories lingering, such as Goshen’s dramatic mishap in 2020, which left Jamie Moore and his supporters heartbroken. The prestigious Gold Cup commands the spotlight, its rich history punctuated by legendary triumphs from icons like Kauto Star, Denman, Best Mate, and Native River. It is this tapestry of unforgettable moments that draws us back, year after year, eagerly awaiting the exhilarating start of the final day’s races.

At the time of publication, the 48-hour declarations for the fourth day’s racing at the 2024 Cheltenham Festival have yet to be confirmed. For now, we have picked the horses that we believe warrant your attention for each race on this highly-anticipated final day of action. Don’t forget to visit Punters Lounge every day during the festival to find our free Cheltenham tips and expert analysis on horse racing.


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13:30: JCB Triumph Hurdle

The festivities of Gold Cup Day commence with the prestigious four-year-old hurdling championship, known as the JCB Triumph Hurdle. Once characterised by frenetic action and the necessity of ample luck, the race has evolved into a showcase of superior quality. The inclusion of the Boodles has filtered out many of the peripheral contenders, ensuring a more competitive field. It is prudent to acknowledge those competitors who arrive at Cheltenham with established Graded form. The Spring Juvenile Hurdle, held during the Dublin Racing Festival in February, has consistently served as a reliable indicator of performance in recent times.

Sir Gino

Sir Gino enters this race as the likely favourite, having won the trial in a manner that could be described as “literally doing handstands” as he crossed the line. He trounced Burdett Road over this course and distance by ten lengths at the end of January. With previous track experience under his belt, he is likely to make a bold bid to follow up here. Nicky Henderson, despite not having won this much in recent years, is determined to add to his seven previous trophies. In recent years, Irish form has proven key to winning this race.

Majborough

Majborough seemed to take it all in stride as he galloped around Leopardstown in a Graded Novice Hurdle last time out. Prominent from flag-fall, the JP McManus-owned gelding took the lead early on. Despite running out of steam in the closing stages, his first run for the Willie Mullins team was impressive, and he can only improve from that experience. Having strengthened since then and undergone further schooling, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he reversed form with some of those who beat him last time.

Kargese

Kargese emerged as the best of the trio that filled the places at Leopardstown last time, under an inspired ride from Danny Mullins. She took a significant step forward from her debut run, benefiting from the weight allowance she received from her male counterparts. Fillies have been increasingly successful in this race, filling the first three places last season. This could signal the start of a new trend, and there’s no obvious reason to think she cannot confirm the form.

Storm Heart

Storm Heart disappointed favourite backers at Leopardstown last time. Despite being the favourite, he was pushed along early in the race and made mistakes at his hurdles. Cheltenham’s unforgiving course means he will need to have learned quickly to iron out those flaws. Though he stayed on well to the line, a lackadaisical attitude cost him any chance. While he will benefit from the experience, his two stablemates that finished immediately in front and behind him might be preferred here.

Salver

Salver comes into this with an unbeaten record, including a win in a Grade 2 race at Chepstow by over twenty lengths, showcasing his potential. He had a prep for this race just a few weeks ago at Haydock Park, winning again by three lengths over Castlefort. If anyone deserves a change of luck in this race, it’s his trainer, Gary Moore. Salver seems versatile on any ground and remains an exciting prospect.

Liari

Liari represents Champion trainer Paul Nicholls. The four-year-old gelding has excelled in all tasks so far, including winning two listed races at Aintree and Musselburgh. However, those are large, flat tracks, and Aintree might suit him better than Cheltenham. He’s another of the French imports that tend to perform well in this race, although the yard hasn’t won this since 2008 with Celestial Halo. This son of Cracksman is definitely one to watch.

Key Trends

  • Irish-trained horses have won 5 of the last 6 renewals.
  • 7 of the past 9 winners started their careers in France.
  • 8 of the last 12 winners finished in the first four in their last race at the Dublin Racing Festival (Leopardstown).
  • Only 2 of the last 16 runners had more than three previous runs in the UK or Ireland.

JCB Triumph Hurdle Odds

Sir Gino 4/6, Majborough 6/1, Kargese 13/2, Storm Heart 10/1, Salver 12/1, Liari 20/1

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14:10: County Handicap Hurdle

In the past, the County Hurdle marked the conclusion of a three-day festival, but it is now positioned as the second race on the Gold Cup card. This race, the shortest among the handicap hurdles featured throughout the week, is consistently characterised by competitiveness and a brisk pace. Patience in tactics, particularly crucial on the new course, tends to be rewarded. Notably, both novice and second-season hurdlers have performed well in this event recently. Willie Mullins has dominated the last 14 renewals, securing victory on six occasions. His recent winners, State Man and Saint Roi, both met the minimum required number of runs at the time of their victories. Despite current regulations stipulating that novices must have four runs to qualify for such handicaps, both triumphed after just three hurdles outings.

King Of Kingsfield

King Of Kingsfield, who was no match for Ballyburn or Slade Steel in a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown, will appreciate a drop in class into this sort of company. Although he has been on the go for most of the season, he is a battle-hardened warrior with a proven ability to win. His sole success over hurdles came at Leopardstown last December in a twenty-three runner race. The hustle and bustle of this race could well suit him, but no horse has run so soon after competing at Leopardstown and gone on to win this.

Magical Zoe

Magical Zoe enjoyed a perfect prep for this with a solid reappearance at the Dublin Racing Festival. Henry de Bromhead’s talented six-year-old mare was a very good runner-up in the Dawn Run Novices’ Hurdle over the course and distance last year. The trainer’s horses tend to peak as they head into festival week, and she will no doubt have the assistance of Rachael Blackmore in the saddle. She acts on all types of ground and, with a run behind her now, she could well be coming here primed to win.

L’Eau Du Sud

L’Eau Du Sud has only had a handful of runs for Dan and Harry Skelton. The six-year-old gelding produced his best run for them since leaving France last time out. He has clearly improved following a bout of wind surgery and was only two lengths behind Iberico Lord in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury last month. He is still open to further improvement and acts on any ground. It’s not impossible to see him running another good race.

So Scottish

So Scottish has not been making much impact over fences, so it was no real surprise to see Emmett Mullins give him a spin back over hurdles at Leopardstown last time. He acquitted himself quite well and finished a fair fourth to a rejuvenated Lord Erskine in a listed handicap. He stays much further than this too, so connections could be tempted to exploit the stamina he has in abundance. He has experience of this track as he was a fair seventh in the Magners Plate last year, and his trainer could be tempted to exploit his lower hurdles rating here.

Lump Sum

Lump Sum has won three out of four races this year, all on mostly flat tracks. The most recent of those was in the Dovecote at Kempton, where he saw off the attentions of Fiercely Proud in the Grade 2 contest. Sam Thomas has his yard in good form and never shies away from a challenge. He acts best with a bit of give in the ground and could certainly shake a few of these up if taking to the undulating course.

Jungle Jack

Jungle Jack has been sparingly campaigned this year and made his comeback following a three-month break and a bout of wind surgery at Kelso last month. He was only denied by a neck by an in-form Cracking Rhapsody (who has gone on to win again subsequently). There should be a lot more to come, and Donald McCain is not averse to training a winner at this meeting. With possible improvement still to come, he cannot be ruled out.

Key Trends

  • 6 of the past 14 winners were trained by Willie Mullins.
  • 18 of the last 23 winners were novices or second-season hurdlers.
  • 4 of the past 8 winners were trained by Dan Skelton.
  • Since 1991, only 3 previous course winners have won this race.
  • 9 of the past 16 winners returned at odds of 20/1 or bigger.

County Handicap Hurdle County Odds

King Of Kingsfield 5/1, Magical Zoe 10/1, L’Eau Du Sud 11/1, So Scottish 14/1, Lump Sum 16/1, Jungle Jack 16/1.

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14:50: Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle

Achieving Grade 1 status after just three renewals, the Albert Bartlett, the longest of the novice hurdles during the week, is now celebrating its 20th year. Notably, it has been won by subsequent Gold Cup winners such as Bobs Worth and Minella Indo. Penhill and Monkfish, who also clinched victory in this race, returned to the festival a year later to claim further successes in the Stayers’ Hurdle and the Brown Advisory, respectively. Impressively, trainer Willie Mullins has secured victory in the race three times in the past seven years. It’s worth noting that the past two winners of this race were lightly-raced, diverging from the trend of more experienced novices who typically excel in this challenging examination of young horses.

High Class Hero

High Class Hero is undefeated since starting his career in a bumper with Willie Mullins in June 2023. Since then, he has racked up four wins over hurdles, including at listed level at Limerick in extremely testing ground. Paul Townend has partnered him in every race over hurdles, and the pair have simply been majestic together. This will be their biggest test to date, but they are proven at this trip and look to be strong contenders.

Gidleigh Park

Gidleigh Park is another that comes into this race undefeated, with winning experience over this track. He won over two-and-a-half miles here when taking a Grade 2 Novices Hurdle back in January. That was his toughest assignment to date, but he did well to battle back and get the better of Lucky Place. This is another step up in trip, but whether he has the stamina to see it out remains open to question.

Shanagh Bob

Shanagh Bob is a Grade 2 winner who recorded a win over this course and distance last time out. Partnered by Nico de Boinville, the pair were doing all of their best work in the closing stages, getting the better of Destroytheevidence by a little over a length. The form of the race has worked out incredibly well, with the likes of Moon D’Orange and Kerryhill both scoring since. He looks to have a solid chance, running in the colours of former dual Gold Cup winner Al Boum Photo.

Captain Teague

Captain Teague has won two from three so far this year, picking up races at Chepstow and Newbury. He clearly acts well on a flat track, and his only defeat actually came at this track in a Grade 2 Novices Hurdle, where he was turned over as an odds-on favourite. He has never finished outside of the front three in any race that he has raced in and appears to act on all sorts of ground. He was an impressive winner of the Challow Hurdle last time out, which is usually a decent guide to this race. He cannot be ruled out, with the stable winning the race last year with Stay Away Fay.

Answer To Kayf

Answer To Kayf could run a big race, particularly if the ground turns out to be on the testing side. The lightly-raced eight-year-old gelding has been mixing it in some decent company this year. He won his maiden hurdle back in October and has been placed in a Grade 2 race and then won another Novice Hurdle at Naas last month. He comes here very much in form and could shake up a few of these at the business end.

Key Trends

  • 17 of the last 19 winners had won or been placed at Graded level.
  • Willie Mullins has trained 3 of the last 7 winners.
  • 8 of the past 12 winners had won an Irish Point-to-Point race.
  • 10 of the last 19 winners had won over 2 miles and 7 furlongs.

Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle Odds

High Class Hero 6/1, Gidleigh Park 8/1, Shanagh Bob 9/1, Captain Teague 10/1, Answer To Kayf 20/1.

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15:30: Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup

The Gold Cup is not only the premier event of the week but also stands as the pinnacle contest of the entire National Hunt season. This race, featuring an extended 3m2f distance, serves as one of the most rigorous tests for Grade 1 chasers. Many recent winners have tackled this distance for the first time, with second-season chasers boasting a particularly strong recent record. Over the past decade, Irish-trained horses have shown dominance, and a sparing racing schedule appears to be advantageous, often leading to a horse being meticulously prepared for a career-defining performance.

Galopin Des Champs

Galopin Des Champs is the reigning champion. Having faltered in his next two runs, he made no such mistake when winning at the Dublin Racing Festival last time. He comes here in peak form and attempts to become the second Willie Mullins horse to win back-to-back renewals of this race within the last six years. He won by over half a dozen lengths last year, and the opposition looks no deeper here than it did then. Still only an eight-year-old, he could well be the one they all have to beat.

Fastorslow

Fastorslow has performed brilliantly at the Cheltenham Festival for the past two years. In 2022, he was beaten only a short head by Commander Of Fleet in the Coral Cup, and last season he found just one too strong in Corach Rambler in the Ultima Handicap Chase. He stepped up markedly on that performance by dethroning Galopin Des Champs in the Irish Gold Cup at Punchestown the following month. He won the John Durkan on his seasonal reappearance earlier in the year (again beating Galopin Des Champs) and was far from disgraced when chasing his old rival home at Leopardstown last time. Given his history around this track, it would be foolish to write him off.

Shishkin

Shishkin has had a dramatic year. He refused to race on his seasonal reappearance at Ascot and was not seen until the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day, where, with the race at his mercy, he stumbled at the last fence and unceremoniously dumped Nico De Boinville on the turf. However, he redeemed himself by winning the Denman Chase. Facing younger and more progressive rivals here, when the pressure mounts, he may not have the speed to keep up with the best of these. Despite being a dual Cheltenham Festival winner, he has been beaten the last two times he has lined up to contest his races here. Not one to place the utmost faith in.

Gerri Colombe

Gerri Colombe has never finished outside of the first two places in any race, and Gordon Elliott holds him in high regard. He has been sparingly campaigned this season, with this race being his intended target for a long time. He can take a while to find his stride, as he proved when getting up in the dying stages of the Ladbrokes Chase at Down Royal back in November. However, he was beaten here last year, and this race is much tougher than that. He will need to be at his very best and then some to give Gordon Elliott his second win in this race.

L’Homme Presse

L’Homme Presse made a winning return to action on his seasonal reappearance but then disappointed behind Pic D’Orhy in the Betfair Ascot Chase last month. Perhaps undone by the better ground, he is far happier on softer ground. Venetia Williams will be hoping his excellent record around this track stands him in good stead. He won the Dipper Chase here back in January 2022 and followed that up with a smooth success in the Brown Advisory later that year.

Hewick

Hewick has been something of a money-spinner for Shark Hanlon, and the talented nine-year-old bids to follow up his most recent success in the King George. He benefitted from the unseating of Shishkin’s jockey to stay on strongly on the run-in to beat Bravemansgame and Allaho at Kempton. A previous winner of the American Grand National at Far Hills and the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown, he has to prove himself around this track, having fallen in this race last year. Another intriguing contender.

Key Trends

  • 21 of the past 24 winners had 12 chase starts or fewer.
  • 19 of the 23 winners this century had won or been placed at a previous Festival.
  • Placed horses from the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle have won 6 from 7 since 2000.
  • Every winner since 2000 was a previous Grade 1 winner.
  • 11 of the past 21 favourites have won.
  • 3 of the last 5 winners were trained by Willie Mullins.

Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup Odds

Galopin Des Champs 11/10, Fastorslow 9/2, Shiskin 13/2, Gerri Colombe 10/1 L’Homme Presse 12/1, Hewick 14/1

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16:10: St James’s Place Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase

The race previously known as the ‘Foxhunters’ is now staged over the same distance as the Gold Cup and holds the highest prestige in the Hunters’ Chase division. Given that it is an amateur riders’ race, having a recognisable name in the saddle is usually advantageous. While casual bettors might approach the race with apprehension, it is advisable to simplify matters by focusing on contenders with higher BHA Ratings and a history of performing well in analogous events at previous spring festivals such as Aintree and Punchestown, along with past editions of this race.

Ferns Lock

Ferns Lock is a rapidly improving seven-year-old who has won four of his six career starts. He was last seen romping to victory at Thurles, where he won a hunters chase by no fewer than eight lengths. History tells us that it is the more battle-hardened and experienced sorts that win this race. He promises to stay this extra couple of furlongs, but is unproven over it and has never raced outside of Ireland before. He could be vulnerable.

Its On The Line

Its On The Line has won his last two hunters chases at Naas and Down Royal. The improving seven-year-old got up to beat Billaway by a head at Naas last time, despite scrambling home. He ran a phenomenal race in this last year when completely unfancied and was just touched off by Premier Magic. With a little more experience under his belt, he has to be high up on any shortlist.

Premier Magic

Premier Magic, the reigning champion, comes here in fine fettle. He has become somewhat of a course and distance specialist, having followed up that win with another just a few weeks later, beating Rebel Dawn Rising by seventeen lengths. Although he hasn’t been seen since, he has defied far longer absences, winning first time out in 2019 following a three-year absence from the track. He cannot be discounted, despite now being an eleven-year-old and potentially more vulnerable.

Billaway

Billaway, who won this a couple of years ago, fell last year when hitting a fence at the water jump, despite being well-supported. For the last few seasons, he has finished second on his seasonal reappearance and won on his next start. That could be an omen here, despite his advancing years. He will likely have the assistance of Patrick Mullins in the saddle, and he certainly knows his way over these fences.

Samcro

Samcro has really found a new lease of life since competing in hunter chases. He has won four of his last five races, becoming somewhat of a Tinahely specialist. There will be doubts as to whether, at the age of twelve, he has the stamina to see this out. He is a previous festival winner, so he knows exactly how to deal with the atmosphere, which will be an asset. He would be one of the oldest winners of the race should he do so, but there are likely to be younger and faster rivals that can catch him.

Key Trends

  • 11 of the past 14 winners had a BHA rating of 134 or higher.
  • 14 of the last 16 winners were placed last time out.
  • 5 of the last 9 winners have been ridden by female jockeys.
  • Paul Nicholls has trained the winner 4 times.
  • 8 of the past 13 winners were trained in Ireland.

Hunters’ Chase Odds

Minella Indo 15/8, Delta Work 10/3, Conflated 4/1, Galvin 4/1, Coko Beach 9/2, Foxy Jack 12/1, and Stattler 16/1.

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16:50 – Mares’ Steeple Chase

Only three renewals of the Mares’ Chase have taken place thus far, mirroring the pattern of the two mares-only hurdle races at the event, where Willie Mullins asserted his dominance by training the first two victors. All three winners hailed from Ireland, with two of them being novices. It’s crucial to regard their performance in Graded races, particularly when competing against male horses.

Dinoblue

Dinoblue is a class act and ran the race of her life when chasing home stablemate Galopin Des Champs at the Dublin Racing Festival last month. She came here last year and found only Maskada too strong in the Grand Annual Chase. Back against her own sex, she has the best form on offer by quite some margin. Owned by JP McManus, she ought to make a bold bid here.

Allegorie De Vassy

Allegorie De Vassy is a deservedly the stable second string in this race as her form fails to match that of Dinoblue. She has been beaten in Grade 3 races of late, but got her confidence back a little by winner a listed contest at Naas last time out. She needs luck and a career best performance in order to trouble her stablemate and likely favourite here.

Limerick Lace

Limerick Lace runs in the same colours as Dinoblue and could be an able deputy should anything not be right with the likely favourite. She has been mixing it with the boys in handicaps this season and even beating them. She is as tough as old boots and has age very much on her side. Her form though is not as strong as the Mullins representative and she has yet to win in Graded company.

Brides Hill

Brides Hill goes well fresh and has been given a break on purpose coming into this. She was last seen running away with a listed Mares Chase at Huntingdon back in January and prior to that she also won at Fairyhouse and Listowel. There have to massive stamina doubts over this trip though as the only time she went anywhere near this far she fell. A note of caution needed.

Carole’s Pass

Carole’s Pass was good enough to win the first three races of her career but she went on a long losing run thereafter. She lined up for a listed chase at Exeter a few weeks ago and jumped with aplomb. She looked as though she hadn’t a care in the world as she assumed command four from home under a well waited ride from Jack Quinlan. Her confidence will have been boosted by that win and now in form she could put another big run together here.

Key Trends

  • All 3 previous winners were sent off as second favourite.
  • All 3 previous winners were rated 150+ on BHA ratings
  • All 3 previous winners were multiple Graded winning mares.
  • All 3 previous winners had run well at Cheltenham previously.

Mares’ Steeple Chase Odds

Dinoblue 10/11, Allegorie De Vassy 3/1, Limerick Lace 9/2, Brides Hill 7/1, Carole’s Pass 20/1

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17:30: Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle

Introduced in 2009 as a 0-140 handicap hurdle and maintained as such for only three years, the Martin Pipe race saw its upper limit raised to 145 in 2012. Reserved for conditional jockeys, it has become a favorable event for novices, especially those trained in Ireland, in recent times. Notable winners include esteemed chasers such as Sir des Champs, Don Poli, and last year’s Gold Cup champion, Galopin Des Champs.

Quai De Bourbon

Quai De Bourbon bids to follow in the footsteps of stablemate Galopin Des Champs who won this on his debut season with the team at Closutton. He comes here undefeated having won a couple of races at Naas and Clonmel. He was firm favourite on both occasions but he had a tendency to jump right in that last race which cost him vital ground. If he does the same here, it may cost him this race.

No Ordinary Joe

No Ordinary Joe is without a win since December 2022. He did however catch the eye on his most recent start when finishing third to Mark Of Gold in hurdle race at Kempton Park. Held up to get the trip, he began to scythe through his rivals one by one. He was doing all of his best work in the closing stages so no surprise to see him make his move sooner here. He will need luck in running if that is the case, but he has to be considered.

Waterford Whispers

Waterford Whispers comes into this extremely lightly raced. The Henry De Bromhead trained six-year-old is owned by JP McManus and is two from three in his outings so far this season. He dipped his toes into handicap company at Leopardstown back in December and seems to have been purposely held back for this. He is well worth another attempt at this trip and should go well.

Lucky Place

Lucky Place may have his sights lowered a little following his decent effort in a Grade 2 over this course and distance back in Janaury. The five-year-old gelding found only Gidleigh Park a little too strong and he will surely benefit from stepping into this sort of company. With previous experience of this track likely to benefit him, he may be one to stay on the right side of.

Western Fold

Western Fold got back to winning ways by thumping D Art D Art at Down Royal in a Novice Hurdle. A repeat of that effort here would surely see the Gordon Elliott trained runner go close. He loves it when the mud is flying, so if conditions are particularly wet, he would have to come right into the reckoning. He has a bit to find with Waterford Whispers should he be confirmed for this race, but if conditions were to come up soft the gap would almost certainly narrow.

Key Trends

  • 13 of the 15 winners had run 8 times or less over hurdles.
  • 7 of the past 10 winners were novices.
  • All previous winners have carried more than 11-1 to victory.
  • 11 of the past 13 winners were at least placed last time out.
  • 2 of the past 5 winners were owned by JP McManus.

Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle Odds

Odds: Quai De Bourbon 7/2, Lisnagar Fortune 10/1, No Ordinary Joe 10/1, Waterford Whispers 10/1, Lucky Place 14/1, Sonigino 14/1

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Tumbleweed King’s Final Thoughts

Another cracking day of action appears set to ensue, with Willie Mullins likely having another successful day. Dinoblue is considered by many to be the banker of the meeting, given her impressive performance against the boys in a Grade 1 race at the Dublin Racing Festival last time.

Galopin Des Champs also arrives here aiming to defend his Gold Cup crown, but he must be wary of his old foe, Fastorslow, who seems to have been trained to perfection for this. It promises to be another mouth-watering clash in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

The Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle concludes the card, a race that often provides a glimpse into what we can look forward to over the next twelve months from up-and-coming novices. Dreams will be fulfilled for some, while unfortunately, hopes will be dashed for others, but we will all return here in twelve months’ time, awaiting the 2025 Cheltenham Festival.

Don’t Miss Out!

Remember to stick with Punters Lounge for daily Cheltenham Festival ante-post previews this week for the remaining three days of action rolling out daily. Our expert tipsters will be providing Cheltenham tips for the duration of the festival so keep an eye out for them.

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All odds are correct with Bet365 at the time of writing.

Karl Hedley is the Punters Lounge Festival and accumulators tipster. He received his break when he entered the Racing Post Search for A Tipster competition in 2006, and beat 6000 others to win the title in 2007.Since then he has been written countless articles for The Irish Field, The Irish Post and several online websites. He was until recently the Irish racing tipster for The Times (Ireland edition).His favourite racing memory to date includes being present to see the brilliant Kauto Star win the Champion Chase at Down Royal.